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标题: 国外分析中国ADSL局端端口过剩?  [查看完整版帖子] [打印本页]

时间:  2004-6-24 12:37
作者: yuyue     标题: 国外分析中国ADSL局端端口过剩?

This comes from Dave Burstein's newsletter.////

She also notes a excess of DSLAM ports in China, with shipments through yearend 2003 of approximately 20 million, but subscribers only at 10.6 million. Port shipments for every vendor shipping into China declined during 1Q04 as service providers absorbed some of this capacity. Carriers always install capacity ahead, including 48 port DSLAM cards that begin mostly empty, but that's a large discrepancy. I've noted in the past that some vendors carry extraordinarily long receivables with Chinese carriers, a remnant of vendor financing days. If vendors mis-reported DSLAM sales to analysts, we'd also see this apparent anomaly.

时间:  2004-6-24 12:41
作者: yuyue

第一季度运营商采购单不多应该是春节的缘故,不是局端过剩吧?一般运营商哪个季度下单多一些? 看到新闻今年采购ADSL设备金额比去年高了30-40%,不知是局端还是用户端?
时间:  2004-6-29 21:05
作者: 风一样自由

根据我的感受,的确是局端过剩,去年采购的太多了。
时间:  2004-7-15 18:40
作者: yuyue

是, HW,ASB都有库存了
时间:  2004-7-16 15:27
作者: rsly929

广东这边还在不短的扩容
时间:  2004-7-19 09:36
作者: sprindaisy

以下是引用yuyue在2004-7-15 18:40:00的发言:
是, HW,ASB都有库存了


确实是这样。二季下降很多。
时间:  2004-7-19 16:18
作者: yuyue

大家怎么看Q3,Q4呢?会消耗掉库存再大批量下定单吗?
时间:  2004-7-30 17:18
作者: 南帝--hnss

记得02年DSLAM PORT:CPE:SUB=4:2:1。现在的比例据称是2:1:0.8。不知道这个数字是否准确?
时间:  2004-12-27 17:14
作者: dyt205

大量空余是有的,但有些地方还是要扩容。




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